Freight Market Report: Week 13, 2026

Market Overview: Week 13 at a Glance

The national freight market showed moderate tightening during Week 13 (March 23-29, 2026), with spot rate activity picking up across most equipment types as Q1 closes out. Shippers are accelerating end-of-quarter shipments to meet inventory targets, creating a short-term demand bump that has lifted load postings 6-8% above the trailing four-week average.

Dry van volumes led the charge, particularly in the Southeast and Midwest corridors, where consumer goods distribution and auto parts shipments are driving demand. Reefer activity is beginning its seasonal Spring ramp as fresh produce out of Florida, South Texas, and the Desert Southwest enters peak season. Flatbed remains steady with construction materials moving in the Sun Belt and energy sector activity in West Texas and the Permian Basin.

Overall, the market is trending toward a more balanced environment compared to the oversupplied conditions that characterized much of late 2025 and early 2026. Capacity is gradually tightening as marginal operators continue to exit, though we are not yet in a tight market by historical standards.

Spot Rate Trends by Equipment Type

National average spot rates (all-in, including fuel surcharge) showed modest improvement across all three major equipment types this week:

Dry Van: $2.18/mile nationally, up $0.04 from last week and up $0.11 from the same week in 2025. The improvement is driven by tighter capacity in the I-65 and I-75 corridors. Top-paying lanes include Atlanta to Miami ($2.85/mile), Chicago to Dallas ($2.42/mile), and Los Angeles to Phoenix ($2.55/mile). The weakest lanes remain headhaul-heavy corridors like LA outbound to the Pacific Northwest.

Reefer: $2.67/mile nationally, up $0.07 from last week. This is the strongest weekly gain in 6 weeks, driven by early-season produce out of Florida (tomatoes, strawberries) and South Texas (onions, peppers). Expect continued strengthening through April as California produce ramps up. Mcallen to Chicago ($3.20/mile) and Lakeland to Atlanta ($3.05/mile) are standout lanes.

Flatbed: $2.45/mile nationally, up $0.02 from last week. Flatbed remains the steadiest equipment type, with consistent demand from construction and energy. Houston to Denver ($2.75/mile) and Dallas to Nashville ($2.60/mile) are performing well. Step deck rates are running 8-12% above standard flatbed.

Overall trend: All three equipment types are tracking above year-ago levels for the first time since September 2025, which is an encouraging signal for the broader market recovery.

Load-to-Truck Ratios

Load-to-truck ratios are the single best real-time indicator of market balance. Here is where we stand as of Friday, March 27:

Dry Van: 3.2 loads per truck (up from 2.9 last week). This is the highest dry van ratio since October 2025 and indicates a market that is approaching balance. Anything above 3.5 historically signals rate acceleration. We are not there yet, but the trend is moving in the right direction for carriers.

Reefer: 5.8 loads per truck (up from 4.4 last week). The seasonal produce ramp is clearly visible in the reefer ratio. This is entering tight territory and explains the $0.07/mile spot rate jump this week. Reefer carriers with access to Southeast and South Texas origin markets are well-positioned.

Flatbed: 4.1 loads per truck (up from 3.8 last week). Flatbed has been the tightest equipment segment all year, benefiting from infrastructure spending and construction activity. The 4.0+ ratio has been consistent for 8 consecutive weeks.

Regional highlights: The Southeast has the tightest overall market (4.5 dry van, 7.2 reefer), while the Pacific Northwest remains the loosest (2.1 dry van, 3.0 reefer). The Midwest is emerging as a balanced market (3.0 dry van) with potential to tighten as agricultural season approaches.

Regional Highlights: Where the Freight Is Moving

Southeast (HOT): The clear winner this week. Florida produce season is ramping up, driving reefer rates to their highest levels since last Spring. Dry van demand is strong out of Atlanta, Charlotte, and Savannah due to import distribution and consumer goods. Expect continued strength through April. Best lanes: FL to Northeast, GA to Midwest.

South Central (WARM): Texas freight activity is healthy across all equipment types. Houston and Dallas remain two of the highest-volume origin markets in the country. Energy sector flatbed demand in West Texas and the Eagle Ford Shale region continues to support premium rates. Auto manufacturing in San Antonio is generating consistent dry van volumes.

Midwest (WARMING): End-of-quarter shipping activity out of Chicago, Indianapolis, and Columbus is boosting volumes. The region typically softens in early Q2 before agricultural season begins in May-June. Right now, positioning for Midwest outbound is reasonable but not premium.

Northeast (NEUTRAL): Steady but unremarkable. Import distribution from the ports of New York/New Jersey and Baltimore provides consistent volume, but capacity is adequate. Rates are near national averages with limited upside unless weather disruptions occur.

West (COOL): Los Angeles and the Inland Empire remain oversupplied with capacity. Outbound rates are below national average despite high absolute volume. The best opportunity is backhaul freight from the Midwest or Southeast into California. Pacific Northwest is the weakest regional market with excess capacity from Canadian cross-border carriers.

Mountain/Plains (STEADY): Energy and agriculture are the primary demand drivers. Denver is emerging as a stronger distribution hub, and construction in the Phoenix-Tucson corridor keeps flatbed demand consistent. Overall volumes are moderate but rates are above average due to longer haul distances.

Fuel Price Update

National average diesel price as of Monday, March 24: $3.82/gallon (DOE/EIA), down $0.03 from last week and down $0.18 from the same week in 2025. Diesel prices have been declining gradually since the February peak of $3.98, providing some margin relief for carriers.

Regional variation remains significant. The cheapest diesel is in the Gulf Coast region ($3.55-3.65/gallon in Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi), while California continues to be the most expensive at $4.85-5.15/gallon due to state fuel taxes and CARB regulations. The Midwest ($3.70-3.80) and Southeast ($3.65-3.75) are near national average.

Fuel surcharge impact: Most fuel surcharge tables reset weekly based on the DOE national average. At $3.82/gallon, typical surcharges range from $0.42-0.52/mile. The declining fuel trend means surcharges are compressing, so carriers should verify that their base rates adequately compensate for fuel costs rather than relying on surcharges alone.

Fueling strategy: With the $0.50+/gallon spread between the cheapest and most expensive regions, route-based fuel planning can save $100-200 per cross-country trip. Apps like GasBuddy and Mudflap are essential tools. Fill up in the Gulf Coast and South Central regions whenever possible.

Equipment-Specific Outlook

Dry Van: The Q1-to-Q2 transition is historically a neutral period for dry van. End-of-quarter shipping boosts current volumes, but expect a brief softening in early April before Spring retail replenishment kicks in. The key indicator to watch: retail inventory-to-sales ratio, which currently sits at 1.28 (slightly below the 1.30 equilibrium), suggesting restocking demand should support rates through Q2. Carriers should lock in contract rates now while the market is firming.

Reefer: This is your season. The Spring produce ramp from Florida, Texas, Arizona, and California will drive reefer demand through May. This is the strongest seasonal pattern in trucking, and reefer carriers should be positioned in origin markets (Lakeland FL, Mcallen TX, Yuma AZ) by mid-April. Spot rates could reach $3.00+/mile on premium lanes. Do not lock into long-term contracts right now — spot exposure during produce season typically outperforms contracts by 15-25%.

Flatbed: The construction season is building momentum as weather improves in northern states. April through September is historically the strongest period for flatbed, with rates peaking in June-July. Infrastructure bill spending continues to flow into road and bridge projects across the country. Flatbed carriers with tarping capability and specialized equipment (step deck, RGN) command premium rates. The 4.0+ load-to-truck ratio should persist through Summer.

Step Deck / Specialized: Step deck rates are running at a 10-15% premium over standard flatbed, driven by machinery and prefabricated construction materials. RGN demand is strong for heavy haul related to energy infrastructure (wind turbine components, transformer equipment). If you have specialized equipment, this is a high-demand environment.

Week Ahead Forecast: What to Expect in Week 14

The final week of March and first days of Q2 should maintain current momentum with a few key variables to watch:

Expect steady-to-higher volumes through March 31 as shippers close out Q1 budgets. Some acceleration is likely on Thursday and Friday as last-minute shipments go out. April 1-3 may see a brief lull as new quarter budgets reset and procurement teams finalize Q2 contract rates.

Weather watch: A strong cold front is forecast for the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest mid-week, potentially bringing late-season snow to Minnesota, Wisconsin, and the Dakotas. This could disrupt I-90 and I-94 corridor movements and create short-term rate spikes for rerouted freight. Carriers in the affected area should factor weather delays into rate negotiations.

Produce watch: Florida strawberry and tomato volumes are building toward peak. South Texas onion harvest is underway. Reefer carriers should be watching these origin markets closely for next-week positioning.

Rate direction: We expect national average spot rates to hold steady or tick up slightly in Week 14. The seasonal pattern supports continued firming, and the load-to-truck ratio trend is positive. However, a significant rate breakout is unlikely until reefer produce season fully ramps in mid-April.

Key risk: Any unexpected economic data (GDP revision, consumer spending report) could shift shipper sentiment. The tariff situation with China remains a wildcard that could disrupt supply chains and freight patterns if new actions are announced.

Action Items for Owner-Operators This Week

Based on this week's data, here are specific steps you should take:

1. Position for produce season NOW. If you run reefer, start planning your deadhead to Florida, South Texas, or Southern California. The carriers who arrive early get the best loads and avoid the scramble when volumes peak in 2-3 weeks. The cost of a $500 deadhead to get into a premium origin market will be repaid on your first loaded move.

2. Review your fuel surcharge tables. With diesel declining, make sure your base rates are strong enough to stand on their own. If you are heavily dependent on fuel surcharges for profitability, you are exposed to margin compression. Negotiate base rate increases where possible.

3. Check your Q1 IFTA records. Q1 filing deadline is April 30. Start reconciling your fuel receipts and mileage logs now rather than scrambling at the deadline. Use our free IFTA Calculator at /tools/ifta-calculator/ to estimate what you owe.

4. Lock in flatbed contract rates. If you run flatbed, the market leverage is in your favor right now with a 4.1 load-to-truck ratio. Approach your regular shippers and brokers about rate increases or volume commitments for Q2-Q3. A 5-8% rate increase is reasonable given current market conditions.

5. Watch the Southeast. If you are not currently running Southeast lanes, consider it. The region has the tightest market in the country right now, and the pattern will intensify as produce season builds. Even dry van carriers can benefit from the spillover effect of tight reefer capacity.

6. Build your cash reserve. The market is improving but we are not in a boom. Use the rate improvements to strengthen your financial position rather than making major equipment purchases. The operators who survived the 2024-2025 downturn with cash reserves are the ones thriving now.

7. Service your truck. If you have been deferring maintenance during the soft market, now is the time to catch up. Spring is the ideal window — before Summer heat and heavy loads put maximum stress on your equipment. A breakdown during produce season costs you thousands in lost revenue.